Virtus.Pro is in a wierd position. They are the best team in the CIS region as evidence by their received direct invites to TI and both previous majors. At these tournaments, however, they have failed to find a top 4 finish. They played very well at the Summit, almost taking it down but losing 3-2 to EG in the finals. With that said, VP struggles against the top tier western teams having lost to OG, Liquid, and Secret in their previous tournaments. I think that Silent will pay dividends to the team in the 1 position because his play is less risky thank Illidan. Hopefully with his help, VP gets over the hump of not cracking top 4 at a large Valve event come June. Right now, however, XBOCT will be carrying for the team this weekend. It could be a disaster or a nice change of pace. Regardless, a first place finish Dota Pit would be surprising but not outside the realm of possibility (even The Score's Bernard Malijan has them winning). I place them on the same level as MVP and Complexity, ahead of Navi and Empire but behind Secret, OG, and EG. Remember that invites get spread among regions and the best teams overall so getting knocked out in the first round wouldn't on its own jeopardize their chances of an invite. It would take Empire surging into a series of wins to threaten their chances.
One of two NA teams in the tournament, Complexity has the most evenly matced opponent in the first round. It's tough to say at this point whether Complexity have earned a direct invite to Manila or TI. Their performances at TI with the old team and Shang Hai with their new roster were above expectations but still showed the team, led confidently by their captain, has some growing to do if they want to rival their NA big brothers, EG. They have also filled the void left by China's waning performance. A win at Dota Pit would be a huge step in securing a golden ticket to Manila and beyond. In front of them is the toughest road to the finals; VP are just as good but more experienced, OG are major champions, and MVP are coming off a strong performance at Shang Hai with a patch that favors their play style. In the finals, assuming no huge upsets, team Secret and EG are the best two teams in the world and their performance has been the most consistent since TI. This would make a win all the more resounding.
The lone South East Asian team of the tournament, MVP, put up a very surprising and good showing at Shanghai. Their group stage performance and main event run really took teams by surprise. Even with their 0-2 loss to EG, this team has put up consistent results and a win at Dota Pit puts team on track for an invite to the next major, something it didn't secure for either Frankfurt or Shang Hai. The current patch favors their style of play; the aggressive and high tempo games MVP favor put teams on edge and disrupt the normal timings of things. If they can continue to find success with this "all-in" mentality, they can act as a foil to the traditional farm-and-fight style of play man teams like and punch their ticket to Manila and even TI. To make it there, they have to punch through OG, battle the winner of VP/Complexity and then do better than their 0-2 loss to EG in lower bracket of Shang Hai against whoever comes out of the lower four teams.
Poor Navi haven't had much success recently. According to Liquidpedia, they haven't placed in a tournament since The International 2015. They are looking for that magic they had at TI 1, having picked up Ditya Ra and General, it seems they are trying to turn a new page in the Navi legacy. It's possible they pull an Alliance in the next couple years, but the focus right now is Dota Pit and TI after that. Even with the roster changes, three players have been with the team for a while; Dendi and Artstyle are legends and SoNNeikO showed streaks brilliance during the international (with the Winter Wyvern, especially). Making it out of the first round with a win against Secret would send a wake up call to the all the sleeping Navi fans and perhaps they could ride that wave of excitement to an unlikely tournament victory (no lower bracket here unfortunately.) For Navi, the path to a Manila invite starts with a first round win at Dota Pit and then stringing together better and better tournament performances.
The last team that could use a tournament win is Empire. If VP is the best CIS team, then Empire is number 2. For some reason, unlike MVP, Empire hasn't been able to capitalize on the current patch and meta. Empire used to be a team which effectively used aggressive line-ups with the ability to push down towers and take teams down. Recently, however, they haven't found the same success and have found minor second place finishes. Just like Navi, a first round win against EG would put them on the fast track for a Manila invite. While I don't think it's impossible for this to happen (Vega improbably beat EG at ESL One), it will require a clever and well thought out approach. I think a more reasonable goal is taking a game off EG with a strong showing and putting up a good fight in a best of three. In this way, Empire can begin a snowball toward Manila and TI.
All teams new and old have their eyes on the Prize of a TI invite. Dota Pit is the first chance in the wake of the Shang Hai major for some teams to start their Manila and TI run. VP, MVP, and Complexity have their eyes on a tournament win, thus proving they really are teams to be reckoned with. Navi and Empire are looking for first round wins against stronger opponents in order to gain traction toward TI. As many professional players will tell you, every tournament is practice for TI, where the Aegis awaits them, and Dota Pit is no different.
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