The International 5 Part 2: All Things Heroes

Lets talk heroes. There were winners and there were losers. Let's start with the biggest loser: Queen of Pain.

The biggest disappointment hero-wise for TI was the Queen of Pain. She had a paltry 25% win rate over 20 games. This poor showing demonstrates that not even professional player can avoid every trap. In a future post I'll touch on this, but the basic idea is this: QoP gives players the impression that they are having a huge impact on the game when, in greater context of the game, they are. Part of the problem for for QoP was the patch. During TI, the mid lane lacked heroes that could reliably win their lane and contribute to the late game. Teams had to chose what they wanted in a midlaner: win the lane or have a strong late game. This, of course, except when they could pick Lina, who I'll talk about next. For now, back to QoP. Heroes exert pressure on the enemy team in three forms: lane pressure, map pressure, and direct pressure. QoP is supposed to be a lane dominator and she is. She's the reason that we didn't see more melee mids picked (like ember, dk, TA and others.) The problem is that after the laning stages, she lacks the ability to sufficiently and directly pressure the map and heroes. Her spells are AOE and don't offer the direct pressure in the form of single target pick off potential that a Lina or Storm do.  Nor can she can't stand and bang with carries like an SF can. She doesn't push towers particularly fast and can't contribute much to taking Roshan, so her map pressure is negligible. I wish that more players had gone for aghs into necro book so that she could contribute more to Roshan, offer more pushing potential, and threaten to pick off supports with minimal risk to herself. Sadly, only Waga advocated this.

Lina was the biggest winner at 62.5% over 32 games (the most picked hero, I might add) for TI. Teams resorted to relying on her to burst down the golden BKB wearing cores of the opposing squad. Her attack range, stun, aoe damage, and single target burst lend her to be a flexible pick, either in the midlane or as a support. Linas popularity stems from the most stable carry for TI being the Gyrocopter. He, usually, relies on BKB to ensure he outputs maximum damage. The airship does magical and physical AOE damage, both of which take time to dish out. What better way to deal with it than to kill him before he gets a chance to flack down your whole team. The other reason why is that she stays relevant during the entire game. 

As for other midlaning heroes, Storm saw a 50% win rate and SF was at 33.33%, both over 18 games. Templar Assassin at 71.43% win rate over 7 games, puts her at the second best mid hero. 

There were many other winners and losers in terms of heroes. Here are some notables with a short explanation:

• Antimage - seen as the second most stable carry. strong against teams containing storm. Watch the IG vs Secret Game 1 or Navi vs VG best of 1 for reasons why this hero was picked. Even with only a 40% win rate, teams had to change how they played to minimize his effectiveness.
• Bounty hunter had a 92% win rate.This hero is broken. If you know how to play him, you should be spamming this hero in pubs. For pro players, he allows them to get back to parity or get very far ahead with just a few track kill.
• Shadow Fiend - while Artzeey's performance on this hero were nothing short of amazing during TI, the hero just didn't perform. He was looked at favorably for teams on the Radiant side because of his easy access to the two jungle camps, however, he just didn't perform. This is another hero that was picked because of the lack of viable mid-laners.
• Techies - I would be remiss if I didn't mention everyone's *least* favorite pub heroes. As AUI_2000 said "Techies is only fun for the person playing with him." Techies single handedly helped EG win TI because CDEC had to ban it every game; they weren't prepared to play against the suicide squad, with or without Tusk.
• If Gyro is the most stable carry and Antimage is the second most stable carry, then Phantom Lancer and Luna tie for 3rd. Luna started seeing more play toward the end of the tournament as teams sought 1 position heroes when a combination of banning and picking removed AM, Gyro, and PL from the pool. Luna is comparable to gyro. She has does burst AOE magical damage in the early stages of the game and then transitions into a machine. Her push is better because of the bouncing glaives but enemies that spread out wisely don't take as much damage compared to a flack cannon.
• The final winners I want to touch on are the supports. The tournament meta centered around getting the best midlaner and position 1 hero, both from a limited pool, and then countering the opponents picks with strong supports. Bounty Hunter, Earthshaker and Winter Wyvern are my top three supports for this tourney, but Disruptor, Visage (with 100% win rate over 5 games), Lion, Crystal Maiden, Naga (while only a 30% win rate, was banned almost every game against Secret and EG, among others), Spirit Breaker, Tusk, and Rubik all had over 50% winrates. The wide variety of support play is a hopeful sign for things to come.

What are your winners and losers for heroes this tournament? How do you think this will impact the pub meta in the long run? Let me know in the comments.

The International 5 Part 1 of 3: Thoughts on the Event

Here are my thoughts on the International 5. This is the 3rd International I've watched and, aside from Liquid doing it and Alliance's victory, was an extremely enjoyable experience. This post will start the big picture and next post I'll talk about some things I saw happening at the micro-level. Finally, I have a post related to the consequences, unexpected and otherwise, of this TI as teams once again will begin their prep for next year.

Group Stages    The group stages were done in a simple but satisfying way. The key points are:

• two groups of 8 teams - pretty self-explanatory

• round robin style matching to determining seeds

• 3 points for a 2-0 and 1 point for a 1-1 - this point system, as EE pointed out in his interview with Hotbid, could encourage collusion among the teams. The basic idea is that 3 teams could intentionally go 2-0 and 0-2 with the other two teams. This gives three 3 points and a very good shot at making it in to the winners bracket.

• Complexity and CDEC surprised everyone with their solid play and finished top 4 of their respective group.

• 3 games were usually going on at the same time. This is necessary, but a pain if you want to watch your two favorite teams. The updates provided at the bottom on draft and who won allowed you to switch to games that might prove more interesting.

The Main Event   It was nice that all the teams got to play in the main event. Some key points are:

• Some of teams that ended up doing really well started in the lower bracket. Notably were Vici Gaming and Virtus.Pro. 

• Some of the favorites to win the whole things ended up in the lower bracket after the second round of upper bracket play. Whith LGD gaming made it to the lower bracket finals, Team Secret finished more poorly than many hoped for. I was in a pool with some guys I play dota with and everyone except for two other guys and me had Secret going all the way. I had Evil Geniuses and won the whole things.

• The games weren't as exciting as TI3 but they were way better than TI4. Check out the VP vs. Secret series, VG vs. Cloud 9 game 1, Complexity vs VP, Secret vs IG games 1 and 2, EG vs CDEC game 3. 

• EG was able to figure out how to dismantle CDEC in the finals after getting crushed by them in the upper bracket. PPD did a vlog about it here.

Miscellaneous Notes:

• No spoiled heroes this TI. Unlike the Techies last year, we didn't see the Pitlord make his debute.

• Kaci hosted the event and did some interviews but she got on my nerves by the end. She needs to up her DOTA 2 knowledge and get away from yelling in a very high pitched voice. In fact, lets just get her away from yelling and encouraging other people to yell (poor March).

• The main event panel was hosted by Paul Chaloner and he kept the conversation moving but not always in the right direction. I think he will continue to get better as he becomes more familiar with the game. I don't think he should self-deprecate in front of millions of people who are the same skill level as him.

• The 3 Merlinis + Synd offered some great insight to the matches played one stream 1 for the group stages. Maybe next year this could be expanded to all streams even if it's just the announcers +1 or +2 people.

• Deamau5 playing at the end was too big of a surprise and the camera work was atrocious; constantly zooming in and out with flashing lights gave me nausea. I like Deadmau5 but the performance was very anti-climatic when compared with the games that had just been played. Maybe he could have played before or during the games and transitioned into closing the event.

• All the casters were great. There wasn't a single point in time where I felt like they missed things or made errors when it came to the game. 

• I think there need to be more Immortal Treasures related to your compendium level. This would encourage users to level it up and allow those of us who didn't get all of the "golden" treasures to feel not quite as gypped for leveling up their book.

What things did you think were done well at this years event? Were done poorly? 

Thanks for reading and stop in soon to read part 2.

Surviving 3k: Just Arriving

You've just made it to 3k MMR. Either you got your grind on and raised your MMR or this is where you, like me, were placed. The 3k MMR landscape is diverse in terms of talent, hero selection, and individual player strategy. It's not uncommon to have an ancients farming medusa go for midas and treads into rapier and carry the game. Don't fall into this trap, however. Here are some survival tips you can employ as soon as you start trying to climb the ladder to 4k.

• Don't jungle, unless it's a hero I highlighted here.
• If your team needs a support, pick it.
• If you're the hard support, I suggest getting courier, sentries, tangos, and a clarity (as per fluff)
• Always, and I mean always, play to win. Don't give up if you're behind 10 or even 20 kills. Games are swingy.
• Identify the best player on your team and ensure they have a good game.
• Don't ever farm ancients.
• Midas isn't a very good item this patch unless you get it before 6 minutes.
• When you get crushed by a single player, go back and watch how they crushed you.
• When you crush a team, go back and watch what enabled you to crush them.
• Help your supports with wards and sentries.
• Buy smokes and set up kills.
• Help zone the offlaner whether you're support or carry.

These are just a few general things to help improve your play so you can continue your progress in the 3k bracket. It's important to keep focusing on the basics of surviving 3k MMR because once you get them down, you can start focusing on playing like a 4k player. 

Surviving 3k: Encouraging your allies to pick around you

Every match, you should be doing certain things:

1. determining how your team is going to communicate
2. assessing how flexible your team is going to be in roles, picks, and lanes
3. trying to convince your team to pick strong heroes, counterpick the enemy, and pick around the hero you want to play

There are many other things, but these 3 you can determine right at the start of the game. For the purpose of this post, let's focus on the last part of point 3. If at least one other person picks a hero that synergizes with what you pick, you multiply the effectiveness of both heroes thus increasing your chance of winning.

Surviving 3k means you need to use all your skills, not just DOTA related, to get that coveted MMR. If you play a great hero x and you know you pair well with hero y, then encourage someone to pick it if they're good with the hero. A few notes about this approach:

• Try a logical argument. for example, if the enemy team has a Storm Spirit and you want to play Omni, you could try: "Antimage counters storm and will play great with my Omniknight because you won't have to get a bkb."
• If the logical argument doesn't work, then try an emotional one. Generally, people make decisions based on emotion; how a decision makes you feel impacts greatly what you decide to do. With that said, most people will respond positively if you ask nicely, but some might respond if you are more aggressive. Caution: people tend to hide behind their anonymity on the internet so being aggressive isn't usually as successful as asking nicely. "You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar" is the old adage.
• Sometimes, no one plays a hero that partners well with you, like you want to play LC but no one picks heroes with burst damage.
• When some one says no to a line of reasoning, try another; sell your idea any way you can. Always keep in mind that the goal is gaining MMR, not making friends or enemies. If you happen to make those, that's fine too, but this is solo queue not social hour.
• Don't constrain your hero pairs to one that will only be in your lane or play a certain role. Try to harness the strength of your team's abilities using snap judgments and making quick decisions. If those decisions don't work after a couple tries, move on to something different.
• Don't get emotionally involved with a hero, hero pair or strategy. Being involved with your significant other is fine but this is, again, solo queue. There is work to do and whispering sweet nothings into your microphone isn't going to get you that +25 at the end of a match. If the game calls for something outside your comfort zone, do it. 
• On the other side of that coin: if your team wants you to pick a hero you aren't good at, try to find a compromise hero, otherwise tell them to pound sand. You are responsible for your destiny. If you're going to make it to 4k or 5k or whatever your goal is, you have to do it. Picking Techies with Tusk may sound like a good idea, but if you haven't played Tusk before, you will be a burden to be carries by someone else.

How do you determine what heroes to pair with? Make sure to check your dotabuff and see what heroes you pair well with. You should be spamming between 3-5 heroes in solo queue (another post for another time) and will therefore build up stats related to those heroes. With those stats you can make more informed decisions about playing the game, include what heroes you pair well with.

The Missing Heroes

Here is the list of heroes that haven't been picked in the main event so far for TI5*:
abadon
alchemist
batrider
beastmaster
brewmaster
centaur warrunner
chaos knight
death prophet
doom
drow
elder titan
entrantress
enigma
faceless void void
huskar
invoker
kunkka
leshrac
lich
lifestealer
lone druid
medusa
meepo
mirana
morphling
necrophos
nyx assassin
ogre magi
omniknight
oracle
outworld devourer
phanrom assassin
puck
riki
shadow demon
slardar
slark
techies
terrorblade
tidehunter
tinker
tiny
teant protector
troll warlord
ursa
vengeful spirit
venomancer
visage
warlock
windranger

Of these, the ones that have a strike through were banned at some point during the main event (there may be more but these were the most significant.

Most of the rest have been hit with with the nerf stick recently, don't fit in the meta, or are just too risky to pick. Here are a few heroes that I feel could be picked, whether situationally or otherwise.

Brewmaster - this hero used to be first pick/ban material. He's fallen out of favor recently but the hero is potent in team centric and push centric line ups. You need to use split, get a kill or two, and take an objective.

Centaur Warrunner - this hero can be a monster in the offlane and was picked up in the group stages 6 times. While he didn't have a great showing, he is similar to tusk, but offers a global presence with his ultimate. He does need a blink dagger to start initiating on people, however his damage output, tankiness and an ultimate which is always useful means that he stays relevant all game.

Enigma - many teams play this hero, but he's greedy. And Rubik is running around wrecking teams. (Just watch Fy God destroy Empire singlehandedly twice and you know why enigma is super risky.

Enchantress - we might see this in the offlane for EG or jungle for Secret nut otherwise this is a risky pick. Still, capturing the early game with kills seems to be a good way to win, especially shutting down the mid. A Darktroll Summoner, Centaur, Hellbear, or Golem can secure kills. Also, a Wildwing can be super annoying or guarantee fast farm with stacks.

Lich - this hero dominates in the dual-lane meta. His abilities lend themselves to winning lanes which seem to be a key to victory.

Puck - this hero has always been good and the aghs upgrade keeps him relevant against bkb as the game progresses. Dream Coil comes online when the Undying Tombstone is at it's most powerful (level 3-4) and the silence is extremely relevant against many of the mids currently being play.

Slardar - Slardar tears through carries that need more time to come online and, with a blink dagger, can catch out many heroes with a near instant stun. This hero also naturally builds items to help push. The other two important aspects which are important to consider are granting an early Roshan and grants information through amplify damage. In an aggressive line-up, this hero excels; get kills, take objectives.

Tidehunter - We might see this on Iceiceice or Universe, but he's MIA. It's unfortunate but the offlane choices right now are not favoring the thing from the depths.

Tiny - we might see a tiny wisp before the event is out, but right now he's being completely ignorged.

Ursa - another aggressive carry that is seeing no love. He's been buffed and retooled since the last TI and now he's even stronger. Like Slardar, Ursa offers an early Roshan. While Ursa doesn't have the lock-down that Slardar offers, his burst damage tears through anyone who can't get away like SF, Clockwork, Lina, and supports who don't have a disable.

*the list is aailable at the bottom of the www.dotabuff.com/esports/events/41/heroes page

Surviving 3k: 3 things to work on to ensure you survive

In a recent interview, one of the pro players that the best teams are thinking 6 steps ahead. To think like this you have to first practice thinking one step ahead. Then two steps. Then it becomes easy because steps past step two depend on what you predicted steps 1 and 2. 

Most players get stuck on steps 1 or 2 because they:

1. Lack enough reference experience to understand the limits of the current game state
2. Not actively thinking about what's going on in the game
3. Have to focus on some of the basic skills in the game rather than some of the bigger pictures

Lacking reference experience

If you want to survive 3k MMR, you have to try to push the limits of your games in order to gain reference experience. The player who does this the best is Eternal Envy. He understands what the limits of the game and can see the end game scenarios when he's behind. He thinks about what the enemy team needs to win and then tries to deny them that. How does he know all this? He has thousands of games to compare his current situation with. If you want to understand what you can and cannot get away with in a game, try different things and watch your replays and your timings for when things worked. EE-sama also is continually actively thinking about the game.

Not actively thinking about the game

When you queue up a game, make it your focus. Put the cellphone down and stop alt-tabbing. I know it's hard but focus your attention on your game, your team mates and your enemies. Your brain is a muscle and if you can exercise it like any other muscle. The more you exercise it to alt-tab and use your cell phone, the less you are exercising it in DOTA. If you want to survive 3k MMR, you need to exercise that brain for DOTA. 

Focusing on basic DOTA skills like not using hotkeys, queuing actions, and buying items is preventing you from focusing on other important aspect of the game. Hitting creeps should become zombie mode at some point. You item builds on certain heroes should become almost automatic and others should be familiar. At the very least, you should be able to understand what items do and what you should buy to itemize against your opponents correctly.

Hopefully these three things will help you survive 3k MMR.

The International 2015 Day 1: thoughts on LGD and Empire

Here's the schedule for the main event on day 1 (you can find the complete schedule here) 

The first series delivered.

It went 3 game in what many thought would be a 2-0 LGD victory. Empire was outplayed and out-drafted in game three, but their extremely aggressive play style caught LGD off gaurd. Empire received a direct invite to TI this year and these games delivered. Yoky played next level in games 1 and 2. Unfortunately, in game 3 a tension existed between a Magnus Reverse Polarity (RP) and the team of LGD. They never gave away more position than they had to, thus curbing Empire's offlaners potential to bring Empire back into game three. Game two saw Silent ball out of control on the Antimage (AM) and take on the entire LGD team in the Radiant safe lane toward the end of the game. At one point I think he was hitting for 500+ damage with empower and battlefurry; it was impressive to say the least. Game 1 was the most back and forth. Yoky's strut his stuff on Axe and it seemed that Empire was in striking distance of a win, however Silent's and Resolut1on's aggressive blinks seemingly cost them getting a set Rax at a pivotal point in the game.

LGD played a good series. Xiao8 really baited Empire into a poor strategy in the deciding game 3. Empire picked the Phantom Lancer (PL) third pick and LGD immediately picked Ember Spirit giving them Gyro and Ember to deal with the illusion spawning  Maybe's performace in the midlane was dominant every game. One comentator compared Maybe to Sumail's performance from DAC. I don't have as much to say about LGD as Empire because they just played such solid DOTA. Their patience paid off in game 1 when they were facing down potentially lost Rax. They didn't lose their cool after a demoralizing loss to an Antimage game 2.

LDG deserved the win with their play. They will face CDEC gaming in the upper bracket for their next series. If Xiao8 can continue his restraint and brilliance, they should be able to defeat a Chinese team who plans on making a deep run from the Wildcard slot.

Thoughts on The International 2015: Group Stages

The International's group stage finished Thursday. With that, here are some of the highlights and my thoughts on the group stages.

• It came down to the wire in Group B for first place and Fourth place. EG was dependent on CDEC dropping a game against EHOME, which they did, for first place. Virtus.Pro and Empire played a best of 3 to determine who would capture the coveted 4th spot.
• Complexity surprised everyone with a third place finish in Group A. 
• Complexity and EG, among others, displayed the power of Techies. Saints preserve us in the pubs.
• I didn't get a chance to watch all the games, but from what I saw Secret and LGD are playing on a different level than the rest of their group. Granted, their group was weaker, however they still made it look easy. 
• While Evil Geniuses didn't dominate their group (and almost didn't get what everyone thought would be a gaurenteed first), they showed flashes of brilliance and dominance reminiscent of the DOTA Asian Championships (DAC) rather than The Summit 3. 
• Invictus Gaming (IG) is, as Winter put it, "lost in the woods." The team has a lot of experience (winning TI2 and all) but their kills per game is the lowest among all teams and this TI is definitely about fighting.
• Cloud9 is playing some of the riskiest DOTA of all time. The sneaky Rosh plus Divine Rapier Anti-Mage was a novel enough strategy to kept them in their game against LGD. However, they still can't finish.
• CDEC, a wildcard team, finished second in group B, besting other, seemingly stronger teams like Virtus.Pro, Empire, Vici Gaming (VG).
• VG is struggling. Maybe dropping Black wasn't such a great idea...
• Newbee showed up to play. They took games off EG, VP, and Empire which counts for a lot in a best of 2 format. However they are facing arguably the strongest SEA team in MVP Phoenix so it could go either way.
• Na'vi was the poster child for TI but they have a very tough round one match against Vici Gaming. Their KDA, GPM, and EXPM over the group stages have been lower than VG. Senniecko is going to have to play out of his mind and Dendi is going to need a few more 20 kill games.

Here are the stats from dotabuff in case you haven't seen them. 

Games resume tomorrow at 1:00 P.M. Eastern time with LGD and Empire.

Surviving 3k: just counterpick them already

The pub meta is driven by the most popular heroes. While win rates generally correlate to popularity, Pudge is super popular but his win rate is about 50% so there isn't necessarily a general causation there; some people just have favorite heroes they like to play alot. Surviving 3k MMR has a lot to do with using picks to compensate for the wide range in skill. A lot of people resist the idea of picking hero flavors of the month and counterpicking those flavors because, again, some people just have favorite heroes they like to play alot. Well that needs to change. Stop picking your favorite heroes and counterpick your opponent already.

If your goal is to get better at DOTA and improve your MMR, then counterpicking offers a direct path to do this. Counterpicking nudges who has the advantage in your favor. Even though Wraithking may not be your jam, he gives Bloodseeker the third lowest win rating so picking a WK into BS is going to give your team a few percentage points in your favor. This is crucial. Games are generally close and the higher you get in MMR, the closer they become. The closer games become, the more important your hero decision becomes because it offers a way to gain an advantage.

How do you counterpick properly? I usually just go to dotabuff heroes section, find the hero I keep losing too, and see which heroes are recommended against them and which heroes give them a lower win rate. It's that easy. It's also useful to know how they generally itemize. Items like black king bar or butterfly can swing in their favor if you aren't prepared.

Personally, I have been having trouble with Bloodseeker. He's everywhere and has a really high win percentage. Having explored different strategies, Ursa has worked well for me because of damage mitigation and the burst damage Ursa offers. Plus he's aggressive around the same time that Bloodseeker is. You don't play Ursa in the jungle against the BS.

What heroes are you having trouble with? How are you trying to deal with them? Let me know in the comments.

Surviving 3k: Finding the Niche

The most common question among pub players is: how do you raise MMR? Some people say to spam this hero or that. Some say to jungle for 10 minutes and come out with the intention of of snowballing your team to a victory. My advice and what has worked for me is to find a niche and fill it.

Lets use some abstraction to understand this.The pub scene trends toward certain picks, strategies, and styles of play. Because the pub scene favors certain heroes, strategies, and styles of play over others, this creates a deficit somewhere. Sometimes this deficit is well founded and sometimes it isn't. Right now, when it comes to support, it isn't. The pub scene at 3k is lacking the support duo currently (Fluff gives a good talk about this here). Rather than having a hard 5 and greedier 4, there's an awkward 3.5 and 6.5 position hero. This is bad.

Most importantly is that no one wants to play the 6.5 position because they are getting sacked so hard. Buy all the wards and the courier and share your tangos. Forget about getting brown boots until minute 12, buy all the smokes and it's your fault for not putting up enough wards when some one on the team gets ganked. Moral of this story is help your supports through buying wards, sharing tangos, upgrading courier, buying smokes and not flaming them.

The second most important point is that having a 3.5 is a liability, most of the time. There are small exceptions. However, the majority of the time picking a greedier support will help your team out way more than having a 3.5 because they will be active on the map and help buy support items during the beginning of the game. The goal of the first 10-20 minutes in a game is to win the laning stage and transition into the mid-game with a lead. The best way to do this is to have a dynamic support duo who matches up well against the enemy team.

Now I know a lot of you out there are going to still play a 3.5 hero, so here's my recommendations:

Enigma - fastest farming jungler there is. Can push early, gets an early mech, and has great team fight ulti.
Chen - maybe the second fastest farming jungler there is. Pushes early, gets mech, and has a great team fight ulti.
Ursa - everyone knows your going for Rosh by 7 minutes. After Rosh, it's time to get aggresive
Bloodseeker - Global ability that powers you up and gives vision when people are low seems like a good deal.
Crystal Maiden - getting a quick level two and ganking the mid lane is how I like to play her. Just make sure to get quick boots because you are slow. Your aura helps your team win the laning phase.

these heroes get active before the 8 minute mark and create pressure on the map naturally during the laning phase. They all have things in common: they pressure the enemy team in ways traditional heroes can't because they don't show on the map until it's too late.As a 3.5 position, you need to help your other support. Like it or not, you need to compensate for your lack of direct laning presence by empowering your other support.

In current pubs, there's a place for a 4 position support or a super active 3.5 position hero. Trying to pick a sub-par jungler like Legion Commander is a waste of time and a pending loss. Fill the niche your teams needs and be rewarded with MMR.

Windranger Core: Crit's the way to go

If you haven't seen Pajkatt's performance on Windranger, you need to check it out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6V2v9KmDzmM. With three items - boots, aghs, Daedalus - dismantles Navi. The announcer (Purge) is pretty sold on this being better than boots, aghs and maelstrom into mjolnir because the damage is bigger and it isn't thwarted by BKB. I agree with Purge. Even though Alliance did have the minus armor strat going, watching a Windranger kill the Wraith King in 4 shots was impressive. Pajkatt credits Slasher at the end of the match for the idea. You can watch Slasher's guide here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNe7XmGiWNE. The basic idea is to rush aghs to remove the physical damage reduction from focus fire and boosts your survivability. From there, crit provides the solo kill potential that chain lightning lacks. Is this the best way to play Windranger? Pajkatt's performance makes a strong case for yes.

More Efficiency

I go to school for electrical engineering and am on course to graduate this May. A topic often covered and talked about in engineering is efficiency. The efficiency of your engine, dispersing heat and processors are all important to understand for their applications. For example, your general - and I mean general, not just internal combustion - engine can only be about 20% efficient because of the inefficiency built into the system from things like friction. Don't be dissuaded from using an engine, however, because we are transferring one form of unusable energy into another, more usable one. In DOTA, efficiency is also extremely important; allocating damage, farming, purchasing items, movement, et al contribute to the efficiency of a player.

The more efficient a player is, the more impact he will have on the game. This is because he is optimizing his outcomes from each decision. The easiest way for me to visualize this is to think about using town portal scrolls (TPs). When used correctly, TPs allow a player to move about the map more efficiently because it takes about 3 seconds to port from top lane to bottom lane instead spending a long time walking and risking being caught out of position. Still, TPs are only so efficient like the engine because they cost gold to use. Thus a player converts gold into less travel time and a lower risk movement.

The contrapositive is also true: the less impact a player has on a game, the less efficient that player is. The carry or 1 position players for each team illustrate this the best. Generally, the carry which is more efficient and able to accrue a bigger advantage over the other carry will take their team to victory. Another way to think about this is to visualize two Anti-Mages: one with level 4 blink and the other without blink. The AM with level 4 blink will be more efficient at all aspects of the game - except, perhaps, mana usage - than the AM without because of the advantage blink offers.

Often players get hung up on efficiency, causing them to become inefficient. Don't let this be you. When considering the cost of a decision, it is often the case that there is an asymmetry of information; it is literally impossible to know all possible differences between and outcomes of two courses of action. Don't let this hinder you. Many players will get hung up on item choices, missing stacks, missing pulls, taking unnecessary creep damage, not spending their gold before they die and the list goes on. All these contribute to small game inefficiencies but psyching yourself out will contribute to large ones because not all inefficiencies make meaningful impacts on games. There is a caveat: the higher the skill game, the more those matter and can snowball into a game loss because players are better at leveraging small advantages created by these inefficiencies. With that said, psyching yourself  out is not allocating your brains processing power efficiently and can lead to tilting: the definition of poor and inefficient decision making.

The next time you find yourself looking for an aspect of your game to improve, consider efficiency. Look for ways to minimize wasted gold and movement then move on to things like allocating damage in team fights or stacking stuns on an elusive target. By improving your efficiency, you will help your team and, hopefully, translate more games into wins.

Death Ball so hard

The past international saw Newbee dominate with the 5 man death ball. Get a pushing hero to 6, group up, take towers, get ahead, push more, get further ahead, and win. This is the death ball way. It became so prevalent that it pushed other strategies out of the meta and wrapped how people played the game leading to a structural change for the tower glyph and gold and hero balancing (sorry, DP.) Re-balancing the game in this way reduced the incentive to employ this strategy, but it's still powerful.

The poster heroes for taking towers are Pugna, Death Prophet (DP), Shadow Shaman (SS), Nature's Prophet (NP) and the big bad wolf (Lycan). Since the nerf stick hit the DP and Lycan directly, they haven't been first pick/first ban in pro games like they were during The International 2014 but are making appearances in the hands of capable teams and players, like EG's Arteezy and Cloud 9's Eternal Envy. Pugna and the SS have fallen out of favor as a direct result of the meta shift even though they are still viable picks although more niche. The NP is a bit of an oddity here because he's picked to globally gank and fight early, evident by the popularity of the Null Talisman and Blademail build.

The strategy was too oppressive, limiting the number of viable strategies and heroes. Teams with a death ball could take two towers in quick succession by winning a team fight at a tower, executing a successful gank, or slow sieging a tower with a counter initiation edge (think Dark Seer) giving them a huge lead. This lead gave more map control the the death ball leading to Roshan, more towers, securing the enemy jungle, et al. While the lead wasn't always insurmountable, it gave significant percentage points to teams who could reliably leverage it into a win.

Why doesn't the death ball bring all the boys to the yard like it used to? Mostly it's the nerf stick, let's say 50% can be attributed to direct nerfing; Lycan, DP, and NP see play, but NP has evolved so he only counts as half leading to 2.5 out of my 5 poster children.. What about the remaining 50%? I have a few theories, and they go as such:

1. Team theory - certain teams do better at certain strategies because of their competent hero pool (who they pick and can play at a professional level) and decision making processes (why they pick certain heroes and how they use them). For tier 1 teams, on an average day, they are all within a few percentage points of each other and a few more percentage points above tier 1.5 and more yet over tier 2 teams. As the meta shifts, these percentages also shift in favor of the team which can leverage those shifts into wins. The examples of this are Alliance and Navi who were so dominant up to the last International, but derailed and haven't found much success since. Thus, because there are narrow margins separating pro teams, shifts in the meta create an environment for teams to capitalize on them based on who they are, dooming teams who relied on strategies which have been pushed out. 
2. Power Curve theory - with each update and introduction of new heroes, it shifts the aggregate power of all heroes and re-balances the relative power level of all heroes. All you have to do is watch the Beyond the Summit 2 game between Team Tinker and C9 where Lifestealer went up against Terrorblase and it was ugly. TB raised the power curve, pushing comparable heroes out - sorry, naix -  and raising the stock of counter picks. A similar phenomena happens with an update, but the aggregate power level may not grow or might even shrink. Since the international, the updates and introduction of more heroes lowered the stock of most death balling heroes or pushed them out of the meta completely; Pugna, Dragon Knight, SS, Enchatress, Chen, Clockwerk, and Lone Druid see basically no play as attributed to the Powe Curve. As one commentator put it, Chen creeps run toward TB and die before they get there.

Whatever the case may be, the death ball is gone for now. Teams have turned toward line ups oriented toward team fighting or brute forcing their way to victory. They no longer pressure the map in terms of towers but take an active approach toward securing an advantage through directly pressuring key heroes. This is where the current meta sits.

Foreseer's Contract Update and Nemesis Assassin Event Thoughts

The Foreseer's Contract has been issued. After a cool digital comic which offered a peak at the newest hero to sign their name in blood for ancient's struggle, the Oracle was made live. I'll highlight some of the additions, positive and negative.

• The new Phantom Assassin arcana looks awesome, but disappointing that it's only a weapon. The model change, alternate animations, and in-game icon are well done. My disappoint with it only being a weapon stems from wanting to use a whole set, not just 4 of the 5 piece or whatever the case may be. Maybe Valve should add an "augment hero" equip slot for occations such as this.
• The Oracle as a hero seems underwhelming in power level, but I don't mind. At least for the moment, the Oracle isn't breaking pubs the way some previous heroes have (Terrorblade I'm looking at you.) I would much rather have the Oracle start a little under-powered and get tuned once it's better understood how he interacts with heroes than the alternative.
• Buying the prediction item every time seems a little greedy for Valve. If it were me, buying the PA arcana would give you one everyday for the duration of the event (as long as you used it up the previous day.)
• Playing with the in game contract idea with reward is super fun. It introduces an objective that doesn't create an advantage for either team. Creation of such an objective with a sought after reward (an awesome set)  adds dimensions of freshness and fun to the game.

Drafting the PA because of the event and Oracle because of new hero infatuation at higher rates is warping the pub metagame. Some pub analysis: Level 1 is the Oracle and PA. They are bad against level 2 heroes and sharing the Razor and Sand King. Level 3 heroes, then, are those good against both the Razor and SK, which are the Bloodseeker and Sniper. However, the Sniper is not a true level 3 hero because of his inherent weakness to PA. This leaves only the Bloodseeker seeing an increase in popularity. It should also be noted that SK is strong against Razor making him the most likely to see more play and an increase in win percentage. It will be interesting to see what tomorrows number from DOTABuff bring.

Level 1	PA:	Oracle
Level 2	Razor	Razor
	Omniknight	Earth Spirit
	Sand King	Phantom Assassin
	Centaur Warrunner	Magnus
	Ogre Magi	Sand King
	Lion	Leshrac
	Axe	Pugna
	Crystal Maiden	Undying
Level 2	Razor:	Sand King:
	Drow Ranger	Zeus
	Sniper	Techies
	Techies	Spectre
	Viper	Bloodseeker
	Meepo	Juggernaut
	Bloodseek	Phoenix
	Sand King	Sniper
	Ember Spirit	Elder Titan

The Top 5 support picks in pro DOTA

Gone are the days of the brown boots supports. Thank goodness. Not only are the games more exciting with supports who have their force staff and blink dagger at the ready, but their team contributions to these games can tip the scales of a close game in their favor. In no particular order, my top five supports for current pro play are: Skywrath Mage, Ogre Magi, Mirana, Elder Titan, and Vengeful Spirit.

The Skywrath Mage (DOTA buff profile) is probably the best support in CM currently. His instant silence in the hands of a pro player makes Pandas look silly as they blink on to shake hands with Ancient Seal. Seal also makes heros like Storm, Weaver, Puck, and most supports over glorified creeps. Concussive shot is the other spell which needs mentioning here. The range on this spell is a ludicrous 1600 units, which makes it perfect for setting up ganks or zoning heroes during the laning stage and beyond. This spell, like Mirana's sacred arrow, takes advantage of being cast from the fog of war; mid heroes beware.

The bra-less wonder. Ogre McGee. Our favorite melee support, the Ogre Magi (DOTA buff), received a buff of last patch (6.82) to his 2X multicast, allowing him to make an impact on the game earlier, and base HP regen to 2.5, increasing his ability to harass. These seemly small buffs create a larger window of time for this hero to maintain relevance, propelling him to a tier 1 support. The Magi signature spell is his fireblast, which also received a decrease in damage but an increase in the duration between each proc thus stunning a target for longer. This reliable, instant cast stun provides the burst damage necessary to gank and blow up other heroes. The other reason to pick up this hero is to boost a right-clicker's dps and movement speed with bloodlust. At level 4, the 50% increased attack speed and 16% movement speed is like having 1.5 yashas equipped (with out the bonus states).

Mirana (DOTA buff) is the most polar hero in this pool. She fluctuates from unbeatable to a waste of space, all depending on how prepared people are for the arrow. A team constantly on guard and placing wards will make a roaming Mirana look embarrassing. However, if those arrow are hitting and translating into kills, the early game lead, and probably the game itself, is yours. Mirana also pairs well with other supports who can set up arrows like Ogre, Venge, Shadow Demon, and Rubbik to name a few. Lastly on the ability front, Moonlight shadow adds a unique dimension to team fighting and ganking. The other thing about Mirana that is unique among these 5 supports is that she can play any position, from farming carry to brown boots support so picking her early or late isn't a liability and reveals very little about your strategy.

Team Secret's Big Daddy has been playing out of his mind on the Elder Titan (DOTA buff)recently in the support role rather than as an offlaner. This hero offers unique effects which only get better as the game goes on, namely Natural Order. Removing 100% base armor cripples stat based carries, like Morphling and Drow, as well as amplifying your teams damage. This hero also scales well with items, but is not dependent on them because of Astral Spirit. His stomp offers a long range initiation that sleeps units for a full 5 seconds, allowing your team and an earthsplitter to set up for a complete blow out. The only weakness of this hero is that his laning presence early is poor because stomp takes time to channel and he is melee so he has trouble harassing and zoning enemy heroes.

The Vengeful Spirit (DOTA buff) is well positioned right now because she works well with farming heroes that rely on physical damage - like Razor, Death Prophet, and Lycan, offers a bat rider-like ability to remove an enemy hero from play at instant speed via swap, increases the teams damage and has a reliable stun. Nether Swap and the increased damage through vengeance aura and wave of terror are the reasons to pick the Venge. She also facilitates Roshan with all the minus armor she's packing, especially if you get a medallion of courage. This item seems to have the DOTA communities consensus on being a core item for her. Shendelzare (yes, that's her name) can also play more of a core role, but operates just fine without items.

These 5 supports the best at what they do. Items aren't a necessity and they all add a dimension to your team which creates space for the team's cores to farm. Next time you play have to play a support, keep these 5 in mind; they won't steer you wrong. 

More Midas, More Problems

                Is midas really worth it? This item embodies many of the great aspect of DOTA. Are you behind in farm? Grab a midas.  Are you really far ahead from the 6-15 minute mark? Grab a midas. Your game has degenerated to a farming war? Grab a midas. The opposing team is going to pressure your towers from the 10 minute mark on? Don’t grab a midas. The item itself represents an investment of time and gold which you hope will pay back dividends in the future. Once purchased, the repayment period for the midas is 11 uses or 16 minutes & 40 seconds. Assuming that a player is averaging 400 gold per minutes (gpm) prior to purchasing it, the initial time investment 2050 gold / 400 gpm = 5 minutes 7 seconds to farm it. Let’s assume that our hero continues to farm 400 gpm plus their newly acquire midas - who’s added gpm is 2050 gold/16.66 minutes = 123 gpm. This makes for a grand farming total of 523 gpm. This changes the 16 minute and 40 second payback period to a true repayment period of 2050 gold / 523 gmp = 3 minutes and 55 seconds. To sum it up, the time it would take to save enough gold to purchase a midas and then farm up enough gold to where it paid for itself would be 9 minutes and 3 seconds. A player gains or loses about a minute for each 100 gpm difference from the baseline case of 400 gpm.

                With all these numbers, let’s try to make sense of what’s going on. The initial time investment is the period of time when the player is working toward getting their item. This is the point when the player is most vulnerable to having their farm disrupted. Each minute of decreased gpm, from deaths for example, during this period adds another minute that the game must go on in order for the midas to generate value. The repayment period is the amount of time that the game has to go on for the midas to break even. It needs another use after that (100 seconds) to generate value. Therefore the game must go on for 18 minutes and 20 seconds for the midas to turn a net profit in isolation. The true repayment period of the midas represents the aggregated affect the item has on a players farming with a players gpm. Finally there is a roughly 9 minutes of cost to break even on time investment that is, to have 2050 gold again.

All these tangibles are important to understand when thinking about purchasing a midas. If you won’t have about 5 minutes of uninterrupted farm, it doesn’t make much sense to purchase a midas because it will push back the true repayment period, delaying your relevance in the game giving. The repayment period gives us an idea of how long the game needs to last from point of purchase it to have a positive return on investment. If the game ends before the 16 minute and 40 seconds window is up, you would have been much better off purchasing a different item which would have improved your hero in some way other than gpm and slight attack speed increase. If the game does go the distance of 18 minutes and 20 seconds from point of purchase, then the true cost of the midas is what we need to worry about. This tells us how long after the purchase of the golden hand we can expect to start getting other items and begin impacting the game in a more noticeable way.

Many of the things discussed here are tangible and easy to quantify. There are still many aspects of the midas worthy of discussion, like the impact of the extra experience or the increase in the value of a creep wave, but weren’t touched on here. The inspiration for this post is to get a rough idea on the worthiness of purchasing the golden hand and a starting point for making sound decisions. Obviously I can’t factor in every variable; however a baseline has been established and will be built upon. Below I have provided a table and graph for quick reference when deciding to purchase a midas.

Player GPM:	Initial Investment	Player GPM with Midas	True Repayment time	Total Time invested
100	20:30	223	09:12	29:42
150	13:40	273	07:31	21:11
200	10:15	323	06:21	16:36
250	08:12	373	05:30	13:42
300	06:50	423	04:51	11:41
350	05:51	473	04:20	10:11
400	05:07	523	03:55	09:03
450	04:33	573	03:35	08:08
500	04:06	623	03:17	07:23
550	03:44	673	03:03	06:46
600	03:25	723	02:50	06:15
650	03:09	773	02:39	05:48