Dota Pit: The Road to Manila Begins

Dota Pit looms in the aftermath of the Shang Hai major. From here on out, teams are trying to secure a coveted invite to the Manila major and, ultimately, TI. For a few teams, even a single win at Dota Pit would boost their profile and put them in contention for skipping the grueling and competitive qualifiers. Secret, EG, and OG will likely get a direct invite regardless of how they perform at Dota Pit because of their previous major and TI victories. Instead, let's look at the teams who really stand to benefit from doing well at this tournament.

Virtus.Pro is in a wierd position. They are the best team in the CIS region as evidence by their received direct invites to TI and both previous majors. At these tournaments, however, they have failed to find a top 4 finish. They played very well at the Summit, almost taking it down but losing 3-2 to EG in the finals. With that said, VP struggles against the top tier western teams having lost to OG, Liquid, and Secret in their previous tournaments. I think that Silent will pay dividends to the team in the 1 position because his play is less risky thank Illidan. Hopefully with his help, VP gets over the hump of not cracking top 4 at a large Valve event come June. Right now, however, XBOCT will be carrying for the team this weekend. It could be a disaster or a nice change of pace. Regardless, a first place finish Dota Pit would be surprising but not outside the realm of possibility (even The Score's Bernard Malijan has them winning). I place them on the same level as MVP and Complexity, ahead of Navi and Empire but behind Secret, OG, and EG. Remember that invites get spread among regions and the best teams overall so getting knocked out in the first round wouldn't on its own jeopardize their chances of an invite. It would take Empire surging into a series of wins to threaten their chances.  

One of two NA teams in the tournament, Complexity has the most evenly matced opponent in the first round. It's tough to say at this point whether Complexity have earned a direct invite to Manila or TI. Their performances at TI with the old team and Shang Hai with their new roster were above expectations but still showed the team, led confidently by their captain, has some growing to do if they want to rival their NA big brothers, EG. They have also filled the void left by China's waning performance. A win at Dota Pit would be a huge step in securing a golden ticket to Manila and beyond. In front of them is the toughest road to the finals; VP are just as good but more experienced, OG are major champions, and MVP are coming off a strong performance at Shang Hai with a patch that favors their play style. In the finals, assuming no huge upsets, team Secret and EG are the best two teams in the world and their performance has been the most consistent since TI. This would make a win all the more resounding.

The lone South East Asian team of the tournament, MVP, put up a very surprising and good showing at Shanghai. Their group stage performance and main event run really took teams by surprise. Even with their 0-2 loss to EG, this team has put up consistent results and a win at Dota Pit puts team on track for an invite to the next major, something it didn't secure for either Frankfurt or Shang Hai. The current patch favors their style of play; the aggressive and high tempo games MVP favor put teams on edge and disrupt the normal timings of things. If they can continue to find success with this "all-in" mentality, they can act as a foil to the traditional farm-and-fight style of play man teams like and punch their ticket to Manila and even TI. To make it there, they have to punch through OG, battle the winner of VP/Complexity and then do better than their 0-2 loss to EG in lower bracket of Shang Hai against whoever comes out of the lower four teams. 

Poor Navi haven't had much success recently. According to Liquidpedia, they haven't placed in a tournament since The International 2015. They are looking for that magic they had at TI 1, having picked up Ditya Ra and General, it seems they are trying to turn a new page in the Navi legacy. It's possible they pull an Alliance in the next couple years, but the focus right now is Dota Pit and TI after that. Even with the roster changes, three players have been with the team for a while; Dendi and Artstyle are legends and SoNNeikO showed streaks brilliance during the international (with the Winter Wyvern, especially). Making it out of the first round with a win against Secret would send a wake up call to the all the sleeping Navi fans and perhaps they could ride that wave of excitement to an unlikely tournament victory (no lower bracket here unfortunately.) For Navi, the path to a Manila invite starts with a first round win at Dota Pit and then stringing together better and better tournament performances. 

The last team that could use a tournament win is Empire. If VP is the best CIS team, then Empire is number 2. For some reason, unlike MVP, Empire hasn't been able to capitalize on the current patch and meta. Empire used to be a team which effectively used aggressive line-ups with the ability to push down towers and take teams down. Recently, however, they haven't found the same success and have found minor second place finishes. Just like Navi, a first round win against EG would put them on the fast track for a Manila invite. While I don't think it's impossible for this to happen (Vega improbably beat EG at ESL One), it will require a clever and well thought out approach. I think a more reasonable goal is taking a game off EG with a strong showing and putting up a good fight in a best of three. In this way, Empire can begin a snowball toward Manila and TI. 

All teams new and old have their eyes on the Prize of a TI invite. Dota Pit is the first chance in the wake of the Shang Hai major for some teams to start their Manila and TI run. VP, MVP, and Complexity have their eyes on a tournament win, thus proving they really are teams to be reckoned with. Navi and Empire are looking for first round wins against stronger opponents in order to gain traction toward TI. As many professional players will tell you, every tournament is practice for TI, where the Aegis awaits them, and Dota Pit is no different. 

Surviving 3K MMR: Applying Pressure

Hello everyone and welcome to the first in a 5 part series on pressure. In DOTA 2, there are three main types of pressure and you feel them in each and every game you play. Let me stress this point: pressure is that feeling you get when your heart is pounding because you have lost map control and the enemy team is under the cover of smoke, advancing on you. Understanding the three types of pressure is fundamental in learning how to channel the feeling of duress you get when under pressure into properly allocating the resources you provide to your team. The three types of pressure are: objective, lane, and time. In physics, pressure is defined force over an area like pounds (force) per square inch (area). In DOTA 2, pressure is also force over an area however this force is the the drive for resources and the area is the map. By understanding and properly reacting to pressure, you can make better decisions and increase your win percentage.

Objective pressure is the largest and most important type of pressure in the game for a couple of reasons: the other two types of pressure directly contribute to it, objectives can be taken from minute 0, and your team gains resources either directly through taking objectives or indirectly through information through things that grant vision (like wards). In fact, the Throne is the penultimate objective and taking it means victory. Below the Throne sit other objectives to focus on and talk about: runes, Roshan, and building. Roshan and buildings provide an immediate gold boost as well as the Aegis of the Immortal for the former and map control for the latter. Runes aren't always as tangible; sometimes they swing the game and sometimes they are just bounty runes... Regardless of which runes they are, they are important objectives in the early part of games.

Lane pressure is the second type of pressure discussed in this series. Lane pressure is, in some ways, a subset of Objective pressure, however it gets its own spotlight because it's more localized, time sensitive, and has a large impact on how the game unfolds. To help distinguish lane pressure from objective pressure, think of objective pressure as the result of accumulating resources - i.e. get gold, then get item, take objective - and think of lane pressure as the act of accumulating resources. By accumulating resources in lane (and in the jungle by extension), you pressure your opponent. Think of lane pressure like an Anti Mage clearing waves of creeps and then clearing the jungle then back to clearing waves of creeps - an enemy team feels pressured to stop him.

Finally, there is time pressure which derives its existence from the idea that line ups or individual heroes want to hit certain timings. Missing those timing makes the game a lot harder for the team which missed it. The converse reverse is also true; make your timings and the game gets easier (hopefully resulting in a win!) Radiance represents this idea brilliantly. A Spectre feels pressured to get her Radiance as soon as possible and the enemy team feels pressured to delay it as long as possible. If her Radiance is acquired on time or early (about 20 minutes), her team is in a good position to win. The longer she's delayed, however, the more pressure her team is under because so many resources have been lost or tied up in getting it.

Understanding what you feel when you're playing is important and we have all had that feeling of pressure at one point or another. When you can identify and translate what you feel into coherent terms, you become a force to be reckoned. Most people get stuck in the feeling phase (thus the constant flame) but reading this blog and channeling how feel into the proper response and decision is the key to grabbing a victory in 3K MMR.

The Snowball Effect

Much like a snowball rolling down hill gets bigger and continues to accumulate snow, so to do heroes who accumulate resources tend to continue to accumulate resources. Certain heroes are more prone to snowball than others, but all heroes can snowball to some degree. Some heroes are reliant snowballing to get ahead in resources and then try to maintain that lead until they win the game.

Shanghai Major: Understanding Metagame Forces

The discussing a metagame can be a very contentious subject and yet it's a term that is always tossed about at each and every event because, for some reason, one always shakes out in some form or another. The Shanghai Major is no exception to this idea. I'm sure I'll need to write an indepth tournament metagame primer at some point, but today isn't that day because we have excellent DOTA going on in China. Instead I'll offer up metagame forces (MGF) as a small substitute.

These forces, much like market forces, drive hero picks at each event. These forces are: current patch, previous strategies, and wins. Initially, captains and coaches spend copious time theorycrafting how games are going to go, taking the current patch and teams at the event (previous strategies) into consideration. As the theories are put to the test, the third force driving the meta takes over: wins. This is the point we find ourselves at for the Shanghai Major.

Alliance, MVP.Phoenix, OG, and EG all won their group and they all did it handedly. Alliance and MVP didn't drop a game and EG and OG only lost once. MVP Phoenix has an insane 8.6 KDA and mostly sub-30 minute game times. This is a testament to their aggressive play style and drafting heroes that can constantly fight. They abused Nature's Prophet's ability to apply map pressure and teleport into any part of the map (drafting it 3 of 4 games only because it was banned for a game) and used fighting carries that aren't cool-down dependant like PL, Slark, and Ember.

Alliance is back and everyone know that this is their patch to lose. Admiral Bulldog is such a force that team Spirit and Fnatic both respect banned both Lone Druid and Nature's Prophet. These two heroes typify the Alliance play style: exert tons of map pressure to maximally leverage opponents mistakes and minimize their own. They chose global heroes in 3 out of 4 games and a pushing line up in the 4th to secure their 4-0 record.

OG is the previous major winner, using their unwieldy picks to keep teams off balance. They grabbed Doom(!) twice against LGD, using it to great effect (although Cr!t gave away way too many dooms in game two, which probably cost them the win).  In their five games they grabbed the Bat Ridder 5 times, relying on it to create space for their generally fighting cores. Beware the fish and Moon's ability to play some of the most disruptive heroes in the game currently.

EG also showed diversity in their drafting and creating in all but one game a solid team from start to finish. They prioritized the Lion and Nature's Prophet but gave Arteezy and Fear different heroes all but once and Sumail a different hero every game. Game 1 against Complexity was a bit of an outdraft by Swindle however the following 4 games looked polished and demonstrated the team's commitment to the strategy of their captain, PPD.

There are a few lessons we can tease out from these team's wins:

1. NP is the real deal in this patch because his flexibility lines up with all of the (winning) strategies being used (all in rush, deathball, and AOE team fight)
2. Lion is the best support. Finger provides the right amount of burst damage because when it's paired with another spell, like Lasso, is the best disable because it's permanent.
3. Fighting and farming carries are still battling it out for who's the top dog, but the fighting carries seem to be winning because of Miracle's performances on the Slark and team's inability to effectively deal with the PL.
4. The offlane position is where games are being won and lost. Nature's Prophet, Lone Druid, and Tidehunter are almost winning teams games single handedly because if the support(s) has (have) to protect their position 1 hero, they fall very far behind. Lion has had so much success because he can run around the map and make plays happen.
5. AOE team fight beats death ball which beats all in rush which beats AOE team fight... etc. 
6. Greed is the name of the game. The team that can get away with the greediest lineup win because they just out economy their opponent...
7. Unless the opponent just starts fighting from minute 1 and the game digresses into a feeding frenzy.
8. If you safe lane tri-lane or 4 protect 1, like Virtus.Pro tried to do against EG with their Sven, you're going to lose because the other team will just of farm you like EG did that very game. 
9. Passive supports are out of style for the reasons listed above and as evidence by the success of Lion and, to a lesser extent, Venge. 
10. Enchantress is great right now, despite being risky. She comes online before all the other greedy junglers, allowing teams to put the pressure on right away. 
11. Look for more Shadow Shaman and Crystal Maiden pick-ups as teams look to solidify strategies and try to pull out picks which an opponent may not be expecting. 

There are a few liberties we need to take into consideration. First is that the sample size is small which means that the metagame is still volatile. It will be interesting to see what happens when Alliance bumps into MVP. While OG and EG have some history, their styles are more similar than Alliance and MVP. Hopefully this will mean more fireworks and fun games for us the viewers. Regardless of how the bracket pans out, everyone is going to keep their eyes on who's winning and either jump on the band wagon or try to adapt their strategy to it. 

Surviving 3k MMR in DOTA 2: An Introduction to Carrying

Everyone wants to play the 1 position hero: the carry. They are fun, flashy and can win the game for their team in many circumstance. To play this position better, we need  There is spectrum for carries: from farming to fighting. All carries fall somewhere on this spectrum. In my anti-carry series, I use the term anti-carry because, technically, all carries are fighting carries at some point in the game, usually after they get their key items. Consequently, I make the distinction that anti-carries want to hunt down enemy carries and prevent them from farming by killing them rather than try accelerate their farming potential by getting items like battlefurry. Farming carries want to find a place on the map that has free gold and take it. It needs to be a place where it's relatively safe so that the currency acquired with minimal risk of losing it. This is partially why farming carries are picked over fighting carries; the risk of losing gold is less so getting ahead is easier and the enemy has to react to you. Let's explore these ideas further.

On the spectrum of fighting and farming carries, Slardar best represents what makes a fighting carry. His skills are oriented toward chasing and locking down heroes, he has high mobility but takes extra damage so this isn't the best for farming the jungle - especially in the early and into the mid game, his spells don't let him spam out a wave of creeps, and he has some mana issues. All these thing culminate into a hero that isn't suited for afk-style farming because it isn't as efficient as just finding a hero and killing them. 

The other end of the spectrum contains the Antimage. He farms a battlefurry and then uses blink to move from neutral camp to neutral camp to lane creeps and back very quickly. The Antimage relies on using battlefurry to get ahead of the enemy carry in items and then fight them. You don't have to play AM this way, but it is overwhelmingly prefered because of its efficiency. Once the AM gets two or three core items after a battlefurry, he can start to partake in fights.

Recently, pro-players have been changing how they build heroes to keep their opponents off balance or help secure an advantage for their team early. aggresif played Phantom Lancer getting boots of travel (BoT) early during The Internation 2015 in order to farm more efficiently by getting to the gold on the map faster and giving him the option to fight with his team at minimal opportunity cost+. BoT also saves you 75 gold per TP and has a lower cooldown than a TP so you can move around the map more efficiently. Players have also been itemizing traditionally farming heroes into fighting heroes by getting aquilla, drums, magic wand, sange, et al. This way, they can show up with their team and help dish out some damage before going into a more farm heavy build with items like yasha and helm of the dominator. 

As the carry player, you need to identify how much time you can spend farming vs. fighting. This is the most difficult aspect of playing a carry but is quintessential to playing a carry well. If you spend too much time farming creeps instead of heroes, you risk your not having an overall advantage. If a few 3- or 4-man engagements end poorly for your team, they might not be able to contribute much to future fights. Similarly, if you spend too much time fighting the enemy team their carry could get ahead of you and out carry you or, worse, your team could lose fights and fall super far behind. This begs the question, when should you farm creeps vs. heroes? Here are some general tips I follow in my games:

1. you want to play carry enough to know item timings to judge how far behind or ahead you are; a 15 minute battlefurry on PA indicates you're farming well but each minute after that means you are falling behind
2. understand how much of the map is available for you to use without fearing a gank; more map control = you're further ahead
3. how many towers do you have compared with your opponents?
4. what's the kill score?
5. who won the last fight and why?
6. how many core items does the opposing carry have?
7. how many items do the other cores on your team have?
8. have people been asking for you to come join fights?

These are just 8 quick and dirty things to think about when you decide whether to farm or fight. There are many other situational things you need to think about when deciding, like when is my hero supposed to be strong, but those things need their own post.  Let me know in the comments below how you determine when to fight or farm. We are all looking for ways to improve and by sharing what we've learned, we can improve together.

The anti-carry series: Ursa Warrior

The Ursa Warrior has one of the highest win percentages of all heroes at a stunning 55% for the safe lane, according to www.dotabuff.com and even a ~52% win rate for the jungle and offlane. This is no coincidence given the heroes skill set and item choices. Ursa's strength as a hero stems from his high burst damage from enrage, overpower and furryswipes; his tankiness from enrage; and his ability to solo Roshan with a mask of death. These three things allow Ursa to help his team secure an advantage and, more often than not, a victory.
Unfortunately, Ursa isn't picked in the pro scene very much. Even though Vega did play him with success against IG (Match 1843364264) at ESL One recently, he suffers from some weaknesses in a linear approach to itemization and he is easily kited. In the professional scene, Ursa needs a mobility item (shadow blade or blink), usually bkb, lifesteal, and a hard disable (usually Abyssal Blade). That's 5 item slots taken up if you include carrying a TP and 6 with an Aegis. This means getting that getting your top tier item (5k gold and above) won't come until your hard disable and to get another top tier item you have to give up your TP, the Aegis, or get Boots of Travel. In order to make him more viable for professional games without wrecking pubs, Enrage should have some sort of a charge time where there is a window for a second after casting enrage when he will continue to remove applied debuffs. This offers players the chance to make skilled plays by timing when to use enrage and when opponents use disables.
The pub scene is quite different from the professional scene, however, because games are much more like a death match than a coordinate team game. Ursa thrives in this environment because his cooldowns are short and he deals a lot of damage as early as level 7. This makes for a hero geared to play aggressively. Going into the mid game, blink dagger, basher, and desolator make up the key items to keep this hero relevant. As long as the Ursa has continued to accumulate items, he stays relevant but his role may change depending on the itemization. Many tier 3 items (butterfly, abyssal blade, assault cuirass, scythe of vyse, etc.) are viable on ursa but they need to shore up his weaknesses. For example, if you're dealing enough damage to burst someone down but are having trouble staying on that target, then more lock down or movement speed should be the item choice.
Ursa's role will depend what lane he's in and how much farm he has. I have tried many early builds, to include midas, medallion, blink rush, shadow blade, drums, and many more, and, believe or not like Ripley, it's dependent on what your opponents are doing but still fairly linear. To leverage the abilities of Ursa most effectively, you need, as mentioned before, mobility and a disable. Some games you can get away with not getting a bkb, however,the Ursa will be building it more often than not.
Here are some of the rules of thumb for items I've used to pretty great success on the hero:

1. Vlads is good but not necessary because a mask of death more than allows you to take down Roshan. If the Ursa is having mana problems, you're against a heavy physical damage lineup, or you are looking to end the game in the mid-game, this will be a good choice.
2. Buy a desolator if you're snowballing hard. It helps you push, significantly increases your damage and helps you chew through high armor targets.
3. Phase/Treads choice in boots is close. I prefer Treads because of the added attack speed and being able to tread switch to stretch your health and mana pool.
4. Blink is better than shadow blade in most circumstances. The problem is shadow blade (sb)  is that you have to prime your abilities, activate sb, find someone, hit them, ground pound, and hit them some more. Sb can make for some awkward initiations where as blink is much cleaner.
5. The Ursa might be the hero to get a Silver Edge for the team.
6. Try to time your enrage and bkb to get the maximum amount of damage mitigation.
7. When you're getting kited, get an abyssal blade and kill whoever is kiting you. If there's 3 or 4 heroes kiting you on the enemy team, the Mjolnir buff ensures you still do damage during the fight. Mjolnir is a decent item on Ursa because it gives him attack speed when overpower isn't up. The lightning procs also help against high armor targets.
8. Butterfly is key against heroes that want to try to attack you to death. Troll, Alchemist, Lycan, and others will get up in your grill and try to right-click you down but butterfly allows you to mitigate their damage.
9. Assault Cuirass is a great item if team fights are even, you are dying to a PA, or the enemy team has one.
10. Eye of Skadi is super good and should be gotten after blink and bkb if you need a hybrid item that gives you HP, armor, damage, and slow. 
11. Sange and Yasha (SnY) is situationally good. Most of the time you won't want another mid-game fighting item but sometimes you can get it instead of bkb. It synergizes well with drums and phase boots if you want to be able to run fast.

I can't stress how important itemization is, especially for the Ursa. His skill build is pretty linear so it's the items and play style that allow this hero to shine. Let me know what you think about Ursa and what items you like to get in the comment section below.

The Anticarry Series: Legion Commander

Welcome back to the Anticarry Series. Today is another look at heroes which try to put a damper on traditional farming carries. The last installment talked about Slardar, a hard hitting strength hero who loves to ruin carries which are highly mobile through a near-instant stun, ability to chase, and keep vision on your target at all times. Legion Commander fills a similar role, but with 2 notable twists: her lockdown goes through BKB and she can pressure in lane extremely effectively. Legion Commander is one of those heroes that just excels in the 1v1 match up which is why you sometimes see her mid. Let's look at how some of the top legion commander players itemize.

These are snippets from the top 10 legion commander players' most common items, according to dotabuff.com. If we assume that the order is descending from left to right, it becomes very obvious that blink dagger, power treads, black king bar, and blade mail are the most agreed upon items. Assault cuirass, magic wand and desolator all follow at 4, 3 and 3. What can we glean from these top rated players? 

1. blink dagger is the initiation tool of choice. Shadow blade has it's place, however, this hero benefits from the attack speed gained from press the attack and items more than any other
2. power treads give you strength and attack speed, which means you're more tanky and better leveraging the bonus damage you get from duel
3. blademail is a way to do more damage during duel and dissuades other heroes from attacking you during duel. It's also good against heroes that deal a lot of damage but don't want to get bkb, like Lion or Lina
4. minus armor further allows you to deal more damage during duel (noticing a trend?) and helps you translate duel damage more easily into objectives
5. you need at least 1 way to help you survive during duel, especially in the mid game when you don't have enough duel damage and/or attack speed to kill a hero quickly. This is mainly done through bkb but AC helps a lot against physical damage dealers.

With these items in mind, the premise of the hero becomes clear: use an instant initiation tool (dagger) so that you can press the attack, blademail and bkb before going in; increase your attack speed (treads and AC) to leverage your duel damage; get items that both make you more tanky and increase your damage (AC and blademail); and ensure you can do as much damage as possible during duel (BKB).

While items are by definition situational, with the LC, you need to stick with the basics and then decide what to get to round out your remaining item slots. After blink, treads, and blademail, the item you chose to slot with can fluxuate. Getting a desolator really helps translate your damage into pushing power, if that's what your team needs. BKB will be picked up more often than not. AC is that hybrid item that also provides some utility. If you find yourself up against heroes that have itemized for the mid game, Armlet might be just the thing; its downside is mitigated by your skill set and it provides armor, strength, and a lot of damage for relatively little cost.

When you find yourself needing a hero that has infinite snowball potential, great single-target lockdown, or you're against the Brood, look no further than Legion Commander. Make sure to itemize correctly and don't jungle from minute zero to ensure you have a great game.

Next time's anti-carry series will feature: Ursa